000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170922 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU AUG 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM HECTOR NEAR 14.3N 118.6W 992 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 16 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST N OF 4N TO ACROSS THE PANAMANIAN/COLOMBIAN BORDER AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 79W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY N OF PANAMA AND W OF COLOMBIA. NO ORGANIZATION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 4N-17N MOVING W 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE ITCZ. NO ORGANIZATION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W FROM 4N-18N MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF AXIS. NO ORGANIZATION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N81W 7N94W 8N108W 11N114W 13N137W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 4N78W TO 7N90W TO 8N100W TO 10N108W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 9N139W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N81W 9N85W 10N86W 10N90W 12N95W AND 16N95W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A LARGE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE SRN US AND EXTENDS SW OVER MEXICO AND BAJA. WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES WWD BETWEEN 20N AND 30N. THE MID LEVEL EASTERLIES LIE S OF 20N AND T.S. HECTOR IS EMBEDDED IN THEM. ON THE SURFACE THE PACIFIC RIDGE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST 48 HRS. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 20 KT BETWEEN 15N AND 20N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST TONIGHT ARE MOSTLY LIGHT UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT ALSO. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED IN RECENT DAYS AND ARE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TONIGHT WITH SLY SWELL OF 8 FT. LATER DAY 1 A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD DEVELOPS BETWEEN 120W AND 132W AS WEAK VORTICITY FROM THE WESTERLIES MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MEXICO AND BAJA. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 T.S. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AS IT MOVES WWD. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WITH NE TRADES OF 20 KT MAINLY BETWEEN 15N AND 22N W OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT WHILE GAP WINDS COULD INCREASE SOME TO 15 KT THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AND W OF SAN SALVADOR. CROSS EQUATORIAL COULD INCREASE TO 20 KT BETWEEN 115W AND 130W WITH STRENGTHENING HECTOR. ALSO THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SLY WINDS INCREASING E OF 100W TO 20 KT S OF 7N. FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN US AND EXTEND SW OVER NRN MEXICO AND BAJA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE WWD BETWEEN 20N AND 30N WHILE THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN 120W AND 132W DECREASES AS VORTICITY CENTERS LIFT NE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS OF 15 KT. NE TRADES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AT 20 KT. GAP WINDS W OF HONDURAS SHOULD BE NE TO E TO 20 KT..TEHUANTEPEC WINDS DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGEST S OF 7N E OF 100W AS MIGRATING WEAK LOW CENTERS INCREASE THE SLY INFLOW. $$ RRG