000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170343 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU AUG 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM HECTOR NEAR 14.3N 118.6W 992 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 16 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. HECTOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY WELL DEFINED HOOKING BAND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS VERY GOOD EXCEPT SW QUADRANT. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED IN A SMALL CDO FEATURE...ABOUT 30 NM IN DIAMETER. ON THE CURRENT TREND...HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO ACQUIRE MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NW AND 45 NM SE OF CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 S QUADRANT AND 60 NM E QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 118W-120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N1113W TO 16N114W...AND FROM 17N116W TO 17N120W WHICH MARKS AN OUTER SPIRAL BAND. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST N OF 4N TO ACROSS THE PANAMANIAN/COLOMBIAN BORDER AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 78W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND THE COAST FROM 4N-7N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 4N-17N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 7N106W IS TIED IN WITH THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W-107W. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-12N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 136W FROM 4N-18N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 12N-14N. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ FROM 8N-12N AND WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N85W 7N92W 8N100W 10N110W 11.5N120W 12.5N130W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-97.5W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 17N133W WITH A RIDGE WEST TO 17N140W AND EAST TO 18N126W. THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO BE GETTING SQUASHED AND ELONGATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 32N119W TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N121W AND SW TO 21N124W. ANOTHER FLATTER UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA NORTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 132W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS AROUND THE BROAD RIDGE STAYING CONTAINED S OF 22N QUICKLY DRYING OUT E OF 137W. WIDESPREAD DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR LIES TO THE N OF THE RIDGE N OF A LINE ALONG 22N140W 19N120W TO 26N110W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SEEN JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 23N107W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HECTOR IS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD TO 20N BETWEEN 110W-119W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 17N77W WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC TO NEAR 14N92W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION EAST OF 90W CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THIS RIDGE. GAP WINDS...EXPECTED SURGES OF NE 20 KT WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 48 HOURS THEN DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT AS WINDS ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. $$ AGUIRRE