000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162212
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR NEAR 13.0N 117.2W 992 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG 
16 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE
IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 65 KT. HECTOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY WELL DEFINED HOOKING
BAND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS
VERY GOOD EXCEPT SW QUADRANT. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED
IN A SMALL CDO FEATURE...ABOUT 40 NM IN DIAMETER. ON THE CURRENT
TREND...HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO ACQUIRE MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM SE
AND S OF CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
120 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM FROM CENTER OVER SW QUADRANT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N-12.5N
BETWEEN 118W-120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM
OF 18N116W WHICH IS PART OF A DISSIPATING OUTER SPIRAL BAND.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

 ...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 4N-18N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. ONLY
SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 102W-106W. 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 9N104W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 135W FROM 4N-18N MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N135W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND WEAK MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N84W 7N92W 10N106W 13N116W 
12.5N125W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 90W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
270 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-109W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 17N133W WITH A 
RIDGE WEST TO 17N140W AND EAST TO 18N126W. THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO 
BE GETTING SQUASHED AND ELONGATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH 
EXTENDS FROM 32N119W TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 25N121W AND SW TO 21N124W. ANOTHER FLATTER UPPER TROUGH IS 
MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA NORTH OF 24N AND WEST OF
132W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS AROUND 
THE BROAD RIDGE STAYING CONTAINED S OF 22N QUICKLY DRYING OUT E 
OF 137W. WIDESPREAD DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR LIES TO THE N OF THE 
RIDGE N OF A LINE ALONG 22N140W 19N120W TO 26N110W. A MID/UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SEEN JUST OFF THE MEXICAN 
COAST NEAR 23N107W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR IS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD TO 20N BETWEEN 
110W-119W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 17N77W WITH A WEAK UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE 
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC TO NEAR 14N92W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION EAST OF 90W CONTINUES TO SPREAD 
NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THIS RIDGE.

GAP WINDS...EXPECTED SURGES OF NE 20 KT WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS THEN DECREASE
TO BELOW 20 KT AS WINDS ALSO DECREASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.

$$
AGUIRRE