000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161547 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED AUG 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURES... .TROPICAL STORM HECTOR...NEAR 13.0N 117.2W 992 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 16 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE STORM CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. HECTOR HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. LONG TERM INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT OF ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FAIR OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN MOST QUADRANTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE AND SE QUADRANTS. THE CENTER OF HECTOR IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WHICH LIES FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 115W-118W. A SPIRAL OUTER BAND TO THE NW OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN HOLDING TOGETHER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND HAS BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND HECTOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W FROM 4N-18N MOVING W 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING. PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 12N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W FROM 4N-17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. RATHER BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG AXIS 9N83W 10N106W 13N122W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED TO THE NW OF T.S. HECTOR NEAR 17N132W. THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO BE GETTING SQUASHED AND ELONGATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 32N120W TO 22N118W. ANOTHER FLATTER UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA W OF 135W N OF 22N. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE TROPICS AROUND THE BROAD RIDGE STAYING CONTAINED S OF 22N QUICKLY DRYING OUT E OF 137W. WIDESPREAD DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR LIES TO THE N OF THE RIDGE N OF A LINE ALONG 22N140W 19N120W 25N110W. TWO MORE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES ARE IN THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE IS CENTERED 200 NM OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 18N107W WITH THE OTHER INLAND OVER SW TEXAS NEAR 31N105W. THE ONLY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH T.S HECTOR AND IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 17N77W WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE TROPICAL E PAC TO NEAR 14N92W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 90W IS SPREADING N IN RESPONSE TO THIS RIDGE. GAP WINDS...LATEST SSMI AND QUICK SCAT INDICATE THAT NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUE IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ELY 20 KT SURGES WILL CONTINUE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS THE GRADIENT IN THE W CARIBBEAN SUGGESTS THAT 20 KT SURGES WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. $$ JC/LL