000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160349
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E AT 13.3N 115.3W MOVING W AT 13 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM WITHIN 150 
NM SE QUADRANT IN SPIRAL BANDS.  UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HOLDS 
STEADY HELPING INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 24 HRS 
AND HURCN WITHIN 48.  WITH FURTHER MOVEMENT TO THE W-NW... 
SYSTEM MOVES UNDER HOSTILE UPPER WINDS AND DRIER AIR MASS 
DISRUPTING ORGANIZATION AND MAKING IT LOSE INTENSITY... 
DOWNGRADING TO TROPICAL STORM IN 96 HRS AND TO DEPRESSION 
IN 120 HRS.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 4N MOVE W 15 KT. LITTLE 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AS UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRON IS TOO ADVERSE  AND  DRY.  
  
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 130W FROM 5N TO 16N MOVE W 15 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION UNDER NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE UPPER 
CONDITIONS WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS N OF ITCZ. NO ORGANIZATION 
OR CIRCULATION NOTED.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...8N79W  9N100W  13N115W  11N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM E OF 103W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM W OF 126W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 15N COVERS AREA W OF 122W WITH 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N119W 
TO 17N120W DIGGING SOUTH THEN TURNING NE TAKING TD-NINE E IN 
MORE NLY TRACK.   

ANOTHER RIDGE COMPLETES REGION COVERAGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
S OF 16N E OF 116W.

ELSEWHERE NE OF E PAC VERY WEAK BROAD RIDGE NOTED OVER GULF OF 
MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN.  

$$
WALLY BARNES