000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152208 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE AUG 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURES... .TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E AT 13.0N 114.1W MOVING W AT 12 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S AND 150 NM W QUADRANTS IN SPIRAL BANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HOLDS STEADY HELPING INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 24 HRS AND HURCN WITHIN 48. WITH FURTHER MOVEMENT TO THE W-NW... SYSTEM MOVES UNDER HOSTILE UPPER WINDS AND DRIER AIR MASS DISRUPTING ORGANIZATION AND MAKING IT LOSE INTENSITY...DOWNGRADING TO TROPICAL STORM IN 96 HRS AND TO A DEPRESSION IN 120 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 4N MOVE W 15 KT. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRON IS TOO ADVERSE AND DRY. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 130W FROM 5N TO 16N MOVE W 13 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION UNDER NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE UPPER CONDITIONS WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS N OF ITCZ. NO ORGANIZATION OR CIRCULATION NOTED. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG...9N80W 10N105W 12N112W 11N125W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 5.5N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N107.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 132W. ...DISCUSSION... MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 15N COVERS AREA W OF 122W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N119W TO 17N120W DIGGING SOUTH THEN TURNING NE TAKING TD-NINE E IN MORE NLY TRACK. ANOTHER RIDGE COMPLETES REGION COVERAGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW S OF 16N E OF 116W. ELSEWHERE NE OF E PAC VERY WEAK BROAD RIDGE NOTED OVER GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN. $$ WALLY BARNES