000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151550
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
.LOW PRES ANALYZED NEAR 13N112W 1010 MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM 4N TO 18N ALONG 112W. THE LOW IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W NW AT 12 KT WHILE THE PARENT TROPICAL 
WAVE HAS MOVED W AT ABOUT 15 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE SW 
QUADRANT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM IN THE 
NW QUADRANT.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE AREA IS CONDUCIVE TO 
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM WITHIN THE NEST 24 
TO 36 HOURS.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 4N MOVED W 15 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.  
  
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 128W FROM 5N TO 16N MOVE W 13 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTH END 
OF THE WAVE AXIS BUT IT SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO A LARGER AREA OF 
CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 14.5N126.5W 
TO 13.5N134.5W. NO ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IN A 
CIRCULATION IS NOTED.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...9N80W 10N105W 12N112W 11N125W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
POINT 5.5N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 
10N107.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE THROUGH 32N117W TO 
25N125W.  THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER NORTHWEST 
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S.  VERY DRY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
ARE OBSERVED WEST OF THIS LINE.  

ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA NORTHWEST 
OF A LINE THROUGH 32N135W TO 25N138W TO 23N140W.  A FEW MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.  WEST OF 
THE LINE SOUTH OF 28N DRY AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS.

ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE ITCZ A VERY WEAK BROAD RIDGE IS OBSERVED. 

DRY AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS NORTH OF A 
LINE 23N106W TO 16.5N115W TO 16N140W WITH THE EXCEPT OF THE 
SMALL AREA AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH.  SOUTH OF THE LINE 
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF 
CONVECTION.  

SOUTH OF 5N THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY WITH SOME CLOUDS 
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM CONVECTION NORTH OF 5N.

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 110W.  ELSEWHERE 
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$
LL