000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150348
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 13N109W BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND 
INCREASING ITS CONVECTION.  UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMING 
MORE FAVORABLE AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCES TSTMS AND ANTICYCLONIC 
OUTFLOW HELPS INTENSIFICATION...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
24-36 HRS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W MOVING W 15 KT BARELY IDENTIFIABLE DUE 
TO VERY HOSTILE SHEAR ALOFT AND DRY ENVIRONMENT.  LITTLE OR NO 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W MOVING W 15 KT HAS 1008 MB...SEE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.  GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW 
PRES AND DEEPENS IT TO 1006 MB IN 24 HRS AND TO 1000 MB IN 48 
HRS.  STEERING WINDS TAKE IT IN A MORE NW DIRECTION AFTER THAT 
INTO COLDER SST...DRIER ENVIRON AND STRONGER SW SHEAR. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W MOVING W 15 KT.  UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS 
MORE FAVORABLE AS WAVE MOVES W NEXT 24-48 HRS SO CONVECTION 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.  CONDITIONS 
BECOME MORE ADVERSE W OF 135W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 139W MOVING W 15 KT UNDER VERY HOSTILE UPPER 
WIND SHEAR.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXCEPT ISOLATED TSTMS 
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS ALONG ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N81W 9N95W 14N109W 10N116W 12N125W 10N128W 
11N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 101W TO 135W.  

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 15N...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 16N132W HAS PROVIDES LARGE AREA OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 125W.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM 
32N124W TO 16B123W HAS CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 24N123W RACING NE 
ALLOWING RIDGE TO EXPAND WEST AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
TO UPCOMING TROPICAL WAVES.  VORTEX BRINGING ITCZ CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS NE MIXING WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 18N.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER TEXAS PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE 
NORTHWARD EAST OF 110W INCREASING CONVECTION ALONG TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 108W.  

S OF 15N...
MOISTURE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG ITCZ SWATH WITH DRY 
AREAS RETREATING NORTHWARD AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS SOUTH OF 
ITCZ.

$$
WALLY BARNES