000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142209
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W MOVING W 15 KT IS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE 
DUE TO VERY HOSTILE SHEAR ALOFT AND DRY ENVIRONMENT.  LITTLE OR 
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W MOVING W 15 KT HAS 1009 MB EMBEDDED LOW 
PRES AT 12N108W.  INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW JUST 
AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS LIKELY WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION IN COMBINATION 
WITH INCOMING LOW LEVEL MOIST CROSS-EQUATORIAL AIR.  GFS BECOMES 
VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW PRES AND DEEPENS IT TO 1007 MB IN 
24 HRS AND TO 1004 MB IN 48 HRS.  STEERING WINDS TAKE IT IN A 
MORE NW DIRECTION AFTER THAT INTO COLDER SST...DRIER ENVIRON AND 
STRONGER SW SHEAR. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W MOVING W 15 KT.  UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS 
MORE FAVORABLE AS WAVE MOVES W NEXT 24-48 HRS SO CONVECTION 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.  CONDITIONS 
BECOME MORE ADVERSE W OF 135W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 139W MOVING W 15 KT UNDER VERY HOSTILE UPPER 
WIND SHEAR.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXCEPT ISOLATED TSTMS 
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS ALONG ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N78W 7N93W 12N107W 11N124W 10N131W 12N138W 
11N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 99W TO 124W  AND WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 124W TO 134W.  

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 15N...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 16N132W HAS PROVIDES LARGE AREA OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 125W.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM 
32N124W TO 16B123W HAS CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 24N123W RACING NE 
ALLOWING RIDGE TO EXPAND WEST AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
TO UPCOMING TROPICAL WAVES.  VORTEX BRINGING ITCZ CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS NE MIXING WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 18N.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER TEXAS PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE 
NORTHWARD EAST OF 110W INCREASING CONVECTION ALONG TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 108W.  

S OF 15N...
MOISTURE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG ITCZ SWATH WITH DRY 
AREAS RETREATING NORTHWARD AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS SOUTH OF 
ITCZ.

$$
WALLY BARNES