000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION SW OF SAN SALVADOR OTHERWISE NO EVIDENCE OF A WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. LINE OF STRONG 
CONVECTION JUST S OF THE MEXICAN COASTLINE MAY BE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE WAVE. GFS MODEL LIKES THIS WAVE AND WANTS TO STRENGTHEN 
IT INTO A LOW PRES CENTER. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A FLAIR UP OF 
ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ. NO ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 136W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC 
ROTATION IN THE MID CLOUDS HINTING AT A CENTER NEAR 11N138W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 4 DEGREES OF THIS LOCATION. 
NO ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N77W 12N89W 14N103W 10N108W 9N129W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N78W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N90W TO 
12N93W TO 9N99W TO 10N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N111W TO 
12N118W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N120W TO 9N125W TO 10N132W.

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE S COAST OF MEXICO FROM 
15N95W TO 16N100W TO 14N105W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING THE 
REGION ALONG 127W BUT LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE 
TROUGH VORTICITY MAX MOVING ESE WHICH MAY REMAIN N OF 30N. A 
LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS W ACROSS 
MEXICO THEN WEAKLY W AND NW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. 
TROPICAL EASTERLIES REMAIN S OF 20N. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS WEAKENED SOME DURING THE PAST 
24 HRS. THE RIDGE STILL MAINTAINS NE TRADES OF 20 KT BETWEEN 14N 
AND 20N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY 10 TO 15 
KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL. 
GAP WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST ARE ALL LIGHT 
TONIGHT.  CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE STRONGEST S OF 8N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 130W ACCORDING TO SSMI. SE AND S SWELL OF 8 FT 
CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA.

LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO TO TO HOLD 
FIRM WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING WWD ALONG 24N THEN NW PAST 130W. 
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE CA COAST. 
TROPICAL EASTERLIES REMAIN S OF 20N. ON THE SURFACE LITTLE 
CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND TRADES. BAJA WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. 
SOME INCREASE IN GAP WINDS W OF HONDURAS WITH THE GFS MODEL 
SHOWING NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 
STRONGEST S OF 8N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.

FOR DAY 2 THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER 
SRN CA WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING OVER MEXICO. THE RIDGE 
AXIS CHANGES LITTLE WITH IT'S AXIS WWD ALONG 24N THEN NW. 
TROPICAL EASTERLIES REMAIN S OF 20N. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK 
TROUGH WILL DROP SE AND APPROACH THE NRN WATERS OF THE BAJA 
COAST WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN NW WINDS TO 20 KT LATE DAY 2. 
THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSING 
BY. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND NE TRADES REMAIN 
ABOUT THE SAME. THE GFS MODEL DOES SHOW SOME INCREASED ACTIVITY 
ALONG THE ITCZ DAY 2 WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE 
CENTERS. CONSEQUENTLY CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONGEST SLY WINDS BETWEEN 
110W AND 133W. WINDS W OF HONDURAS WILL REMAIN ELY TO 20 KT DAY 
2.

$$
RRG