000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 6N MOVING W 15 KT HAS MAINTAINED 
ITS CONVECTION MOSTLY OVER LAND OF 13N IN SPITE OF ADVERSE 
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF AXIS OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA MAINLY DUE TO MASS CONVERGENCE OF MOIST TROPICAL 
AIR OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W N OF 5N MOVING W 15 KT HAS GOOD BURST 
OF MODERATE CONVECTION UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS AND GOOD 
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  ENVIRONMENT ALOFT JUST AHEAD OF 
WAVE MIGHT NOT TURN SO ADVERSE AFTER ALL ALLOWING FURTHER 
INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS DISPLACED W 
AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS.  GFS PRESENTS AN AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO WITHIN 
48 HRS BUT DRY POCKET AHEAD MIGHT TURN IT AROUND.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W PRESENTLY HAVING A BURST OF CONVECTION 
DUE TO WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON ITS NRN HALF OF 
AXIS.  CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR FOR NEXT 24 HRS WITH ADVERSE 
CONDITIONS MEETING WAVE AXIS NEAR 124W-125W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W FROM 5N TO 17N MOVING W TO 15 KT.
AIR MASS BECOMING DRIER AND WAVE IS UNABLE TO DEVELOP ANY 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN SPITE OF FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  10N85W  11N113W  12N120W  8N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
100W TO 129W.   

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 15N...
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED AT 17N132W 
CONTROL AIR FLOW OVER AREA W OF 126W.  SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
FROM 32N121W TO 14N125W CUTS OFF RIDGE EASTWARD EXTENSION 
BRINGING VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS.  
SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 15N121W FORCES UPPER LEVEL 
ITCZ CONVECTION DEBRIS NE TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT LIKELY TO 
DRY OUT BEFORE IT REACHES LAND.  TO THE EAST...LARGE RIDGE OVER 
GULF OF MEXICO DIGS SW TO 15N106W BRINGING DRY AIR FROM GULF AND 
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO E PAC N OF 15N. 

S OF 15N...
ITCZ MOISTURE SWATH INTERLACED WITH AREAS OF DRY AIR MASS 
BROUGHT S BY UPPER FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE.  PRETTY DRY S OF 8N 
ALL ACROSS BASIN.  

AT THE SURFACE...
TRADES DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE AS 1032 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTER WEAKENS AND REMAINS N OF 40N.  SIMILARLY N WINDS AND SEAS 
ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA ABATING RAPIDLY. 

MODERATE TO STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL S-SW WINDS BRINGING 8 FT 
SEAS S OF 10N BUT LACKING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERCOME POOR 
UPLIFTING CONDITIONS S OF ITCZ.

$$
WALLY BARNES