000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 5N ACROSS COSTA RICA AND EASTERN 
NICARAGUA IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
OVER MOST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FEATURE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 3N TO 14N IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. 
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA LOCATED WITHIN 2 TO 
3 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N TO 13N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 132W FROM 5N TO 16N IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. 
A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12.5N132W. 
MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE/LOW EXCEPT AT THE 
N END OF THE WAVE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 15.5N130.5W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 11N98W 10N110W 11N116W 11N132W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 
128W.  

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 137W FROM NEAR 15N TO 28N WITH ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW LOCATED WITHIN 6 TO 7 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. TO 
THE EAST A WEAK MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF 23N125W. THIS FEATURE IS NEARLY 
STATIONARY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN ABOUT A 5 DEGREE RADIUS OF 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT LIES EAST OF THIS 
FEATURE INTO WESTERN MEXICO. ALL THREE OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD 
MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HOWEVER THE RIDGE ALONG 137W 
WILL AMPLIFY NORTHWARD.

S OF 15N...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS LOCATED S 
OF 8N W OF 100W.

$$
CAB