000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W MOVING W 15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO 
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. NO CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 10N81W 11N97W 10N110W 13N116W 11N130W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7N90W TO 10N106W AND FROM 13N118W TO 
12N125W TO 15N131W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM 11N88W TO 14N92W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH LIES OFF THE W COAST AND EXTENDS S TO 
30N. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SRN US AND NRN MEXICO HAS 
SHIFTED E TONIGHT TO THE NW GULF. ANOTHER MID LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDS SE OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION AND WEAKLY CONNECTS 
WITH THE RIDGE OVER NRN MEXICO. MID LEVEL TROPICAL EASTERLIES 
LIE S OF 20N. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 16N105W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 
20 KTS N OF 15N W OF 130W AS CONFIRMED BY SSMI. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST ARE NWLY 10 TO 15 KT. GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE CONFINED TO S OF 6N W OF 
100W.

LATER DAY 1 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SWD TOWARD THE REGION 
BRINGING WITH IT A SURGE OF DRIER AIR. MID LEVEL RIDGING 
CONTINUES OVER THE SRN US EXTENDING WWD OVER NRN MEXICO AND BAJA 
THEN WEAKLY WWD BETWEEN 20N AND 30N THEN BACK NW OVER THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL TROPICAL EASTERLIES WILL REMAIN 
MOSTLY S OF 20N. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE WITH NE TRADES TO 20 KT MAINLY W OF 130W. A 
SECONDARY AREA BETWEEN N OF 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W WILL 
CONTINUE. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. 
SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN ELY WINDS W OF HONDURAS AND GULF OF 
PAPAGUAYO LATER DAY 1 AS ELY WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN BLEED 
THROUGH THIS AREA. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND S WINDS INCREASE TO 
20 TO 25 KT S OF 6N W OF 115W WITH SLY SWELL OF 8 FT. 

FOR DAY 2 THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHARPENS SOME AS IT BRUSHES BY 
THE NRN PORTION OF THE REGION ALONG 125W. MOST OF THE ENERGY 
WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA. THE BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL 
CONTINUE TO COVER THE SW US AND THE NRN HALF OF MEXICO AND BAJA. 
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKLY CONTINUE WWD BETWEEN 20N AND 30N THEN 
CURVE NWWD. TROPICAL EASTERLIES WILL REMAIN S OF 20N. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SURGE HEADING SWD ALONG 
130W IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL INCREASE 
N WINDS TO 20 KT AND BRING IN NLY SWELL TO 8 FT. OTHERWISE 
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH NE TRADES TO 20 KT N OF 
14N AND W OF 128W. ELY WINDS TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE W OF 
HONDURAS WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 FT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE 
AND S WINDS DECREASE SOME DAY 2 BUT EXPAND N TO NEAR 10N W OF 
100W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT.

$$
RRG