000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS 
PLACED PRIMARILY BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
A SMALL BATCH OF SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 7N-13N 
BETWEEN 100W-106W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 140W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE 
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RATHER LARGE AMPLITUDE WITH A BROAD 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING FROM 132W TO 145W...AND THE 
STRONGEST VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACTUALLY W OF THE AREA NEAR 12N143W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N W OF 135W. THE 
WAVE WILL SOON MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...AND 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTWOCP/ACPN50 
PHFO OR THE SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE UNDER HEADERS 
HFOSIMHI/ATHW40 PHFO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 10N90W 9N105W 13N129W 12N140W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 81W-88W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 
91W-96W. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
96W-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N-17N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICS...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 28N135W 
EXTENDS NW PAST 30N140W. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR 
AXIS LIES ADJACENT TO THE RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO A 
WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 22N129W AND IS PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD 
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 115W-128W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS 
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 122W-126W. 
OTHERWISE...CONVERGENCE ALOFT NEAR THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 20N W OF 130W. THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 16N103W JUST OFF THE COAST OF 
MEXICO NEAR ZIHUATANEJO...AND THE MARINE LAYER HAS MOVED AS FAR 
E AS 114W N OF 19N AND IS HUGGING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N 
OF PUNTA FALSA.

TROPICS...
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 140W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTION WHICH IS SHIFTING W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. 
THE TSTM ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE 
BETWEEN A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE OF THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS...AND THE FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED JUST S OF 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 3S123W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM THE 
TROPICAL WAVE NE TO NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND AND SERVES AS AN AXIS OF 
DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE 450 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH ON THE E END OF THE RIDGE NEAR 18N116W IS ALSO 
DRAWING A BIT OF DRIER AIR DOWN ITS E SIDE...FILTERING FROM THE 
BAJA PENINSULA SWD OVER SOCORRO AND CLARION ISLANDS. FARTHER 
E...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY E/NELY EXCEPT FOR A 
SHARP TROUGH ALONG 100W N OF 10N. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...A SQUALL 
LINE HAS DEVELOPED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALTHOUGH TODAY 
THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N94W TO 15N93W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 92W-97W 
MOVING W NEAR 30 KT.

$$
BERG