000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE 
HAS NO APPARENT SIGNATURE EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT INFLECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ AXIS. CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 136W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS 
BEEN ANALYZED SLIGHTLY FARTHER W BASED ON AN IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL 
CURVATURE TO THE WIND FIELD...AND CLOSER TO A CLUSTER OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 132W-140W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 9N85W 8N95W 10N110W 12N133W 
9N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N E OF 81W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 83W-86W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 93W-97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W-113W AND 116W-129W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N-14N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA NEAR 28N138W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
EXTENDING NW OF A LINE FROM 30N122W TO 17N140W. A CLOSED UPPER 
LOW (AN OPEN TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS) LIES ADJACENT TO THE 
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 19N128W WITH UPPER 
MOISTURE WRAPPING PRIMARILY AROUND THE S AND E SIDES. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SECOND UPPER LOW/TROUGH LOCATED OVER 
NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS REALLY ONLY SERVING TO ENHANCE THE 
SUMMER MONSOON RAINS OVER NW MEXICO AND THE SW UNITED STATES. 
ONE LINE OF TSTMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO 
FROM THE ISLAS MARIAS NW TO NEAR LOS MOCHIS...PROBABLY ALONG THE 
LAND BREEZE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED FARTHER S NEAR 19N117W WITH DEEP TROPICAL EASTERLIES 
EXTENDING S OF 15N FROM CENTRAL AMERICA WWD TO 125W. STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS OCCURRING OVER THE ITCZ W OF 125W... 
AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 136W. LOW-LEVEL CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW E OF 100W IS RATHER 
STRONG AT THE MOMENT WITH LOW CLOUD STREAMERS FLOWING INTO THE 
ITCZ FROM THE S. A TROPICAL SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS S OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 14N96W TO 10N95W MOVING W ABOUT 30 
KT BUT THE TSTM ACTIVITY IS ON A DOWNWARD TREND.

$$
BERG