000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH MEXICO AND THE EPAC ALONG 
90W MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 126W IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. MOST OF THE 
ACTIVE CONVECTION LIES ON THE ITCZ. CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN AROUND 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE WAVE AXIS. NO ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 138W IS MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ON THE ITCZ IS NOT ORGANIZED.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N80W 9N110W 11N120W 10N135W. AN 
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NORTH 
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 100W-105W MOVING WEST. THIS CONVECTIVE 
IS NOT ORGANIZED. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THAT AREA. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 120W-136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW CORNER OF U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. 
THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THAT AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
WHILE SLOWLY MOVE WWD. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH LIES ALONG 
110/111W IN THE UPPER EASTERLIES. THIS INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE 
NEAR 130W TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW IS WEST OF THE 
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR 19N124W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
COVERS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CORNER WHERE THERE 
IS AN UPPER HIGH WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ON THE 
SURFACE...THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 15-20 KT 
BETWEEN 10N AND 20N E OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE 
LIGHT NWLY. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO ARE 
NE TO E 15-20 KT. THESE WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS CROSS EQUATORIAL SE 
WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 100W-115W. AN 
UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE WWD REACHING THE NE PORTION OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. 
 
$$
RUBIO/MUNDELL