000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ON THE ITCZ IS NOT ORGANIZED.  

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. MOST OF THE 
ACTIVE CONVECTION LIES ON THE ITCZ. CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION LIE WITHIN 3 DEGREES E OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO 
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 3 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO 
ORGANIZATION. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N80W 10N110W 11N124W 7N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N78W 8N90W 7N93W AND 7N96W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 
10N99W TO 11N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF 
A LINE FROM 9N112W TO 8N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
8N135W. 

ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR THE COAST AT 9N84W 13N91W 16N94W 23N107W 
AND 26N110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX RIDGES W OVER NRN BAJA 
THEN SW TO 25N140W. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WAS SLIDING WWD ALONG 
120W IN THE UPPER EASTERLIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE 
INVERTED TROUGH MOSTLY HAS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
IT TONIGHT. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED W OF THE TROUGH 
ELONGATED NE/SW FROM SRN CA SW TO 20N135W. ON THE SURFACE THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 20 KT BETWEEN 10N AND 
20N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST TONIGHT ARE LIGHT 
NWLY. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGUAYO ARE NE TO 
E TO 20 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS SHOW UP IN SSMI S OF 4N W 
OF 100W WITH SPEEDS TO 20 KT.

LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
SLOWLY WWD TO SW TX AND NRN MEXICO. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT 
NWD TO ALONG 30N WHILE THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES ARE MAINLY S OF 
22N. THE INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WWD TO ALONG 
124W LATER DAY 1. ON THE SURFACE NE TRADES WILL CONTINUE ABOUT 
THE SAME. THERE COULD BE A SURGE OF NLY WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN 
LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE SLY AND 
CONTINUE S OF 4N W OF 95W. TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGUAYO WINDS 
WEAKEN TO MOSTLY LIGHT.

FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER W TX AND NRN MEXICO. 
RIDGING EXTENDS W TO 30N125W. THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE 
EASTERLIES MOVES NW TO NEAR 25N130W. A NEW INVERTED TROUGH SHOWS 
UP DAY 2 ON THE MEXICAN COAST S OF BRO.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST 
BY THE GFS MODEL TO MOVE NWD INTO TX UNLIKE THE FIRST TROUGH 
THAT MOVED WWD. ON THE SURFACE NE TRADES OF 20 KT WILL BE 
CONFINED TO BETWEEN 13N AND 21N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL WINDS WILL BE SELY 20 KT S OF 5N W OF 105W AND S TO 
SW TO 20 KT S OF 4N E OF 105W. TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGUAYO WINDS 
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.  
 
$$
RRG