000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091543
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W/85W N OF 5N MOVING W 20 KT. SLIGHT 
INVERTED V CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS OBSERVED OFF 
THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AS MOST OF THE WAVE AXIS IS OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 7N TO THE COAST 
OF COSTA RICA.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 3N TO 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE 
IS BENEATH A MID LEVEL LOW THUS THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE 
WAVE AXIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS. AN AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS 
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 113W-117W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W FROM 2N TO 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE 
IS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW ENHANCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA 
FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 129W-136W. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N76W 9N98W 14N118W 9N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
86W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
AXIS FROM 96W-107W. 

...DISCUSSION...
WELL ANCHORED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE S 
CALIFORNIA COAST SW TO THE TROPICS NEAR 18N135W IS BLOCKING THE 
UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS N OF AREA. LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR 
UNDER RIDGE CURTAILS CONVECTION N OF 18N W OF 120W. NEXT 
INCOMING TROUGH MIGHT BE ABLE TO DISPLACE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EWD 
OVER NEXT 48 HRS DECREASING TRADES TO W OF 130W BUT POSSIBLY 
INCREASING WINDS ALONG COAST S OF CALIFORNIA. 

CONNECTING UPPER HIGH OVER N/CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGS PLENTY OF 
TROPICAL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO E PAC.  
UPPER LEVEL LOW VORTEX AT 3N132W HELPS FIRST RIDGE 
MENTIONED ABOVE TO ADVECT SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG ITCZ W OF 120W.

AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 34N140W 
ESE TO 24N118W. IF SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS UNDER PRES FROM UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...TRADES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN NEXT 6 TO 
12 HRS AS ATLC RIDGE DRIFTS E. 
 
$$
WALLACE/MUNDELL