000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 131W FROM 2N TO 17N MOVE W 12 KT.  WEAK TO 
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND ENHANCE INCREASING SCATTERED 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 7N TO 12N.  CONDITIONS 
ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF TIME WAVE 
REMAINS E OF 140W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W FROM 3N TO 16N MOVE W 12 KT IS UNDER 
UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW WHICH 
ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 9N AND 14N TO 
17N WITHIN 120 NM E OF AXIS.  DRY AIR MASS SLOT DUE TO MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE AWAITS WAVE JUST AHEAD SO DEVELOPMENT CHANCES ARE 
SLIM. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 3N MOVE W 20 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 3N WITHIN 150 NM E OF AXIS 
HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY LAST 4 HRS.   

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N84W 10N118W 7N140W.  ISOLATED CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS EXCEPT SCATTERED IN VICINITY OF WAVES.  

...DISCUSSION...
WELL ANCHORED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER AT 30N123W 
BLOCKED INCOMING UPPER TROUGH WHICH NOW LIES N OF AREA.  LARGE 
AREA OF DRY AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE CURTAILS CONVECTION N OF 18N W 
OF 110W.  NEXT INCOMING TROUGH STRONGER MIGHT BE ABLE TO 
DISPLACE RIDGE EWD NEXT 48 HRS DECREASING TRADES W OF 123W BUT 
POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS ALONG COAST S OF CALIFORNIA. 

CONNECTING ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGS PLENTY OF 
TROPICAL CARIBBEAN MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO E PAC.  UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 2N132W HELPS FIRST RIDGE MENTIONED 
ABOVE TO ADVECT SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG ITCZ W OF 120W.

AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WELL NW OF AREA NEAR 34N150W 
TO 18N110W.  TRADES W OF 123W REMAIN UNABATED SINCE LAST WEEK.  
IF SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS UNDER PRES FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
MENTIONED ABOVE...TRADES MIGHT DECREASE...BUT RIDGE HAS BEEN 
UNSUCCESSFULLY ATTACKED BEFORE WITHOUT AS BUDGE. 

GAPS WINDS...GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN NEXT 
12 HRS AS ATLC RIDGE DRIFTS E UNDER PRES FROM WEAK FRONT OFF ERN 
SEABOARD.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES