000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 130W TO THE N OF 4N HAS MOVED W 12 KT OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
WAVE FROM 6N TO 13N.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W TO THE N OF 2N HAS MOVED W 12 KT 
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED 
FROM 7N TO 17N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 3N ALONG 81W AND HAS MOVED W NEARLY 20 
KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENHANCED CONVECTION HAS DECREASED TO ONLY 
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 11N WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS...
BUT STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AT 5N 
AND OVER PANAMA AT 9N79.5W.   

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W 8N93W 10N123W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE 5N77W 
11N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N E OF 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 35N108W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 24N140W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER 
THE SUBTROPICS...N OF 23N W OF 123W. 

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 12N106W WITH AN INVERTED UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING N TO NEAR 24N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE W COAST OF OLD MEXICO 
FROM 16N TO 32N. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY 
SPREAD SW MERGING WITH MOISTURE FORM EARLIER CONVECTION S OF 
BAJA...
AND CONTINUE SW TO THE SE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND MERGING WITH 
THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. BASICALLY 
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST FROM 18N TO 6N W OF 113W. AN UPPER 
CYCLONE IS NEAR 6N132W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W SE TO 20N115W. 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED NW OF A LINE ALONG 11N130W 
TO 20N110W.

GAPS WINDS...LATEST SSMI DATA INDICATES NE WINDS TO 20 KT 
CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN 
WILL SUPPORT THESE NE SURGES TO 20 KT EARLY WED.
 
$$
NELSON