000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 129W TO THE N OF 4N HAS MOVED W 12 KT OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
WAVE FROM 7N TO 13N.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W TO THE N OF 2N HAS MOVED W 12 KT 
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS STRETCHING THE ITCZ N 
SLIGHTLY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 10N TO 
17N WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 3N ALONG 79W AND HAS MOVED W NEARLY 20 
KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED FROM 4N TO 11N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
AXIS.   

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W 8N93W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF 
LINE 5N77W 10N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ALONG 35N123W 31N128W. THE TROUGH 
WILL DISSIPATE S OF 32N TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS 
SE TOWARDS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 31N114W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 22N142W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER 
THE SUBTROPICS...N OF 23N W OF 123W. 

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 13N104W WITH AN INVERTED UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING N TO NEAR 26N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 14N97W AND WITHIN 
30 NM OF 16N113.5W. RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SE 
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND MERGES WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...TOGETHER COVERING THE DISCUSSION 
AREA FROM 20N TO 6N W OF 120W...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE 
SPREADS S ACROSS THE EQ BETWEEN 136W AND 150W IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW INTO A CYCLONE AT 6N132W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W SE TO 20N115W. 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED NW OF A LINE ALONG 11N130W 
TO 20N110W.

GAPS WINDS...LATEST SSMI DATA INDICATES NE WINDS TO 20 KT 
CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN 
WILL SUPPORT THESE NE SURGES TO 20 KT DIMINISHING TONIGHT. 
NLY 20 KT WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
 
$$
NELSON