000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 8 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W N OF 2N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 10N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 128W N OF 2N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 10N.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 7N78W 9N100W 11N115W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 110W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS W OF 110W. 

NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 120 NM OF 13N95W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S ARIZONA TO N BAJA ACROSS 
THE PACIFIC TO 23N140W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE SCALE 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED NEAR EQ131W COMBINING 
WITH RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE TO PRODUCE STRONG E FLOW AND SHEARING 
ENVIRONMENT OVER ITCZ NOT CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT.

WEAKENING INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N102W TO 26N114W. 
DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR MASS UNDER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIMIT TROPICAL 
WAVE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL DESPITE DECREASED SHEAR ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 33N140W SE 
TO 16N105W. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 22N W OF 120W.

GAP WINDS ABATING IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC. 
WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 12 TO 24 HRS.
 
$$
MUNDELL