000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081026 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE AUG 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 126W N OF 4N MOVED W 15 KT WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AXIS AND ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS NOT ENTIRELY HOSTILE BUT WIND SHEAR REMAINS HIGH AND AIR MASS RELATIVELY DRY...DEVELOPMENT NOT LIKELY. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W N OF 2N MOVED W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE FLARING WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 9N TO 11N. UPPER ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS HOSTILE BUT AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...DEVELOPMENT NOT LIKELY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS STRETCH FROM 8N83W 10N92W 9N124W 8N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 120W AND WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS W OF 120W. ...DISCUSSION... ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALOFT AT 32N115W HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SECOND CENTER AT 26N123W THEN CONTINUE SW TO 20N140W. RIDGE EFFECTIVE BARRIER TO BLOCK ANY FURTHER SWD INTRUSION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SE IN NW CORNER OF BASIN. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR EQ AT 131W COMBINING WITH RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE TO PRODUCE STRONG E FLOW OVER ITCZ HINDERING POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP OF TROPICAL WAVES. INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N102W TO 25N111W. DRY AIR MASS UNDER TROUGH AXIS INTRUDING NW AT LOWER LEVEL WILL VOID TROPICAL WAVE OF DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL IN SPITE OF DECREASE OF SHEAR ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W SE TO 16N105W. STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 24N W OF 121W. GAPS WINDS...STRONG TRADES OVER WRN CARIBBEAN BASIN SPILLING OVER INTO E PAC ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GRADIENT AND WINDS EXPECTED TO ABATE WITHIN 24 HRS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW 20 KT IN LESS THAN 24 HRS. $$ WALLY BARNES