000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124.5W TO THE N OF 4N HAS MOVED W 12 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE WAVE FROM 8N TO 13N.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W TO THE N OF 2N HAS MOVED W 15 KT THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FLARING WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
WAVE AXIS FROM 6N TO 10N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
AXIS E OF 112W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 123W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INDICATED WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
112W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE CA COAST AT 39N TRAILING AN UPPER 
TROUGH SW ALONG 32N127W 27N136W. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE S OF 
32N WITHIN 48 HOURS AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SE TOWARDS 
THE NW PORTION. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA AT 29N114W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A SHARP CREST AT 20N140W. DRY UPPER 
AIR IS NOTED OVER THE SUBTROPICS...N OF 23N W OF 117W. 

AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N99W TO 27N108W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N109W 24N110W. DEBRIS MOISTURE 
ORIGINATING FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED SE UNDER THE UPPER 
RIDGE AND MERGES WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ... COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 18N TO 5N W OF 
115W BUT SPREAD S ACROSS THE EQ BETWEEN 136W AND 150W INTO THE 
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 1N131W. 
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 4N E 
OF 115W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W SE TO 22N113W. 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED NW OF A LINE ALONG 11N135W 
TO 19N107W.

GAPS WINDS...LATEST SSMI DATA INDICATES NE WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT 
THESE NE SURGES TO 20 KT...MOSTLY AROUND SUNRISE...THROUGH 24 
HOURS THEN DIMINISHING. NLY 20 KT WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC UNEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS THEN 
DIMINISH.   
 
$$
NELSON