000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071528
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 7 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W N OF 2N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THERE IS NO 
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THERE IS NO 
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ...

AXIS 8N78W 9N93W 10N115W 9N125W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION 90 TO 150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 103W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 12N134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM NRN MEXICO AND NRN BAJA TO 
AROUND 23N140W. A WEAK INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 110W HAS 
BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY W. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
TROUGH HAS BEEN FLARING UP IN THE EVENING ALONG THE W COAST OF 
MEXICO AND DYING OUT IN THE MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 
DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THIS CONVECTION E OF 115W AND N 
OF 15N. A 600 NM WIDE BAND OF DEEP-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALONG A 
LINE FROM 16N110W TO 9N140W. AN AREA OF DEEP-LEVEL ITCZ MOISTURE 
IS BETWEEN 4N-10N E OF 110W. AT THE SURFACE THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT BUT IS PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 15-20 KT 
FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 120W. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SELY WINDS CONTINUE 
WITH WINDS OF 15 KT OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KT S OF 4N ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE BASIN WITH SW SWELL TO 9 FT E OF 110W. GAP WINDS ARE 
NOTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH NE SURGES TO 20 KT MAINLY 
AROUND SUNRISE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$
MUNDELL