000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. 
THERE IS NO ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W N OF 2N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THERE IS 
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THERE IS NO ORGANIZATION TO THE 
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 8N92W 8N108W 9N122W 9N130W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
6N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 7N85W TO 
8N109W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 10N118W 10N122W AND 8N129W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 132W AND 140W.

STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 25 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
22N109W AND 27N111W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LOW THATS BEEN JUST N OF THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS 
HAS FINALLY DECIDED TO LIFT OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS 
THE LOW MOVING NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE 
COVERS THE SRN US AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND NRN BAJA. 
A WEAK INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH LIES ALONG 110W TONIGHT. ON THE 
SURFACE THE PACIFIC RIDGE HAS WEAKENED SOME THE PAST FEW DAYS 
BUT STILL IS PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 20 KT FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 
120W. LATEST SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS NW WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SELY WINDS 
CONTINUE TONIGHT TO 20 KT S OF 5N W OF 95W WITH S AND SW SWELL 
TO 8 FT.

LATER DAY 1 A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE DEPARTING LOW 
WILL SWING SE INTO THE REGION NEAR 30N132W. THE MAIN AFFECT WILL 
BE AN INFLUX OF DRIER MORE STABLE ALOFT OVER THE NRN PORTION OF 
THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN US WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS 
SW ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND NRN BAJA THEN SW TO 22N140W. THE 
INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES OVER SRN BAJA MOVES LITTLE. ON 
THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NE TRADES WITH NE 
WINDS 20 KT CONFINED TO BETWEEN 14N TO 22N W OF 120W. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN NWLY TO 20 KT. OCCASIONAL N AND 
NE WINDS OVER THE BAY OF TEHAUNTEPEC AND W OF HONDURAS COULD 
REACH 20 KT TODAY. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SE AND S WINDS.

FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS WORKING IT'S WAY INTO 
THE NRN PORTION OF THE REGION DISSIPATES DAY 2. THE UPPER RIDGE 
OVER THE SRN US BEGINS SHIFTING WWD OVER THE SW US WITH AN AXIS 
EXTENDING SW TO 24N140W. THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES 
WILL MOVE SLOWLY WWD TO ALONG 115W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 LITTLE 
CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE OR THE NE TRADES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. 
NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DAY 2 TO 10 TO 15 
KT. SO CALLED GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHAUNTEPEC AND W OF HONDURAS 
WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME NELY TO 20 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE 
AND S WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WITH S AND SW SWELL TO 8 
FT.
 
$$
RRG