000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W TO THE N OF 4N HAS MOVED W 15 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 13N.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W TO THE N OF 2N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
ISOLATED MODERATE IS FLARING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 
6N TO 15N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 8N113W 8N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE 6N83W 13N112W 12N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED FROM 5N TO 13N W OF 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N126W
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 30N126W 24N130W. THE CYCLONE IS 
EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TO THE NW CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNRISE 
MON TRAILING THE TROUGH TO NEAR 30N127W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA 26N113W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SW THROUGH 20N126W TO A SHARP CREST AT 20N140W. 
DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER THE SUBTROPICS...N OF 23N W OF 119W. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED IN SEA OF CORTEZ FROM 22N 
TO 29N AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 22N E OF 
113W. DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THIS CONVECTION IS 
ADVECTED SE BY THE UPPER RIDGE AND MERGES WITH THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...COVERING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 18N TO 5N W OF 113W BUT SPREADING S ACROSS 
THE EQ BETWEEN 136W AND 146W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 3S131W. 
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 3N E 
OF 113W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N112W TO 18N140W LATE 
MON. 

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W SE TO 17N115W. 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED NW OF A LINE ALONG 12N138W 
20N109W.

GAPS WINDS...LATEST SSMI DATA AND A SHIP REPORT NE-E 20 KT WINDS 
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL 
SUPPORT THESE NE SURGES TO 20 KT...MOSTLY AROUND SUNRISE... 
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS SUPPORT NLY WINDS 
INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING IN 
ABOUT 30 HOURS.    
 
$$
NELSON