000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118.5W TO THE N OF 4N HAS MOVED W 15 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 13N.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W TO THE N OF 2N IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FLARING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 6N AND FROM9N TO 
17N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 8N113W 8N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE 6N80W 15N111W 14N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG OBSERVED FROM 7N TO 13N TO THE W OF 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N126W
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 30N130W 25N135W. THE CYCLONE IS 
EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TO THE NW CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNRISE 
MON TRAILING THE TROUGH TO NEAR 30N127W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA 26N111W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SW THROUGH 23N125W TO A SHARP CREST AT 20N141W. 
DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER THE SUBTROPICS...N OF 23N W OF 114W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE MEXICAN 
COAST AND BAJA PENINSULA FROM 17N TO 24N. DEBRIS MOISTURE 
ORIGINATING FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED SE BY THE UPPER 
RIDGE AND MERGES WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ...COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 18N TO 5N W OF 113W 
BUT DIVING S ACROSS THE EQ NEAR 138W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 
3S131W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N 
OF 3N E OF 113W. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL LIKELY SHIFT N DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N112W TO 18N140W 
LATE MON. 

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W SE TO 17N115W. 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED NW OF A LINE ALONG 12N138W 
20N109W.

GAPS WINDS...LATEST SSMI DATA AND QSCAT DATA INDICATES NE 20 KT 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN 
WILL SUPPORT THESE NE SURGES TO 20 KT...MOSTLY AROUND SUNRISE... 
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE.   
 
$$
NELSON