000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 6 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W N OF 3N MOVING W 20 KT. SMALL AREAS OF 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED NEAR 16N102W AND 5.5N105W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER OF 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE CENTERED NEAR 12N117.5W.

...ITCZ...

AXIS 6N79W 9N102W 11N120W 10N140W. AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 90W AND FROM 7N TO 12N 
W OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

A NEARLY STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED W OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 
35N128W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF 
THE AREA FROM 24N111W NEAR S BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 14N140W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF THIS RIDGE 
AXIS. S OF THE RIDGE MODERATE E WINDS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
ARE LOCATED BETWEEN 6N AND 17N W OF 110W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO EXTENDING 
NW INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 105W AND 
110W. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND NO NEW VORTICES ARE SPINNING UP IN 
THE PRIMARY GENESIS AREA S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. MODEL GUIDANCE 
FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE...SO THE E 
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE PEAK OF 
THE HURRICANE SEASON APPROACHES.

$$
MUNDELL