000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W N OF 4N HAS MOVED W 15 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE 
WAVE. THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ABOUT THE SAME THE PAST FEW HOURS 
AND THERE IS NO ORGANIZATION. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 2N HAS MOVED W AT 15 KT. ONLY 
ISOLATED SMALL CONVECTION JUST E OF THE APPARENT WAVE AXIS. 
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N77W 6N97W 11N116W 11N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 77W TO 86W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE NEAR 8N93W 11N103W 6N105W 12N116W 9N128W. SCATTERED 
STRONG FROM 11N135W TO 10N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG CLOSED VORTEX JUST N OF THE REGION TONIGHT WAS NEAR 
34N128W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MIGHT BE 
STARTING TO EXIT NNE. THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR 
REGION OTHER THAN A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 120W AND 
140W N OF 25N. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE W OF THE REGION 
APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING MORE NW WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER 
THE SRN US STILL MAINTAINS A WEAK RIDGE SW ACROSS MEXICO AND 
BAJA TO NEAR 20N125W TONIGHT. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK 
TROUGH WAS ROTATION SE ALONG 125W. WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WERE 
ALONG 117W AND 96W WITH LITTLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. 

LATER DAY 1 THE CLOSED VORTEX MAKES IT'S MOVE NEWD TO NEAR 
35N126W BUT STILL INFLUENCES TO OUR REGION N OF 25N BETWEEN 118W 
AND 140W. THE MID LEVEL EASTERLIES CROSS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO 
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS..ONE OF WHICH IS PROJECTED TO BE 
OVER THE W COAST OF MEXICO APPROACHING LOWER BAJA. ON THE 
SURFACE WINDS PICK UP A BIT ALONG THE BAJA COAST NWLY TO 20 KT 
WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS BUT STILL MAINTAINS 
NE TRADES BETWEEN 15N TO 22N W OF 120W TO 20 KT. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SE WINDS CONTINUE S OF 5N W OF 100W AND SLY WINDS S 
OF 7N E OF 100W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT.

FOR DAY 2 THE CLOSED VORTEX CONTINUES NE TO THE NRN CA COAST 
WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING BACK SW TO 28N138W. THE MID 
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN US CONTINUES TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS NRN 
MEXICO AND BAJA SW TO 23N135W. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN THE 
EASTERLIES SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING DAY 2 AS IT MOVES WWD ALONG 
110W S OF 25N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE SHOWS 
SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN BUT THE WIND FIELD DOESN'T 
CHANGE MUCH. NW WINDS TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST WITH NW SEAS TO 7 FT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS S OF 5N W 
OF 100W WILL CONTINUE WITH S TO SW SWELL TO 8 FT. 
 
$$
RRG