000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060345
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W N OF 4N HAS MOVED W 15 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS 
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. 
CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE ENHANCED ALONG THE WAVE AT 11N. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94.5W N OF 2N HAS MOVED W AT 15 KT DURING 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N78W 11N140W. CONVECTION HAS 
DIMINISHED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 78W AND 86W AND DOTS THE AREA FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W 
AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
CONTINUES FROM 6N TO 12N W OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N127W.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 31N140W. THE 
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST 
BY SUNRISE MON TRAILING THE TROUGH TO NEAR 30N140W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO AT 27N110W WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING SW THROUGH 19N120W TO A SHARP CREST AT 
18N140W. THUS THE UPPER FLOW IS WLY TO THE N OF 25N W OF 125W 
AND SLY ELSEWHERE N OF THE RIDGE. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER 
THE SUBTROPICS...N OF 23N. DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING ALONG THE 
ITCZ IS NOTED FROM 20N TO 3N W OF 123W AND OVER WATER FROM 23N 
TO 3N E OF 123W. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL LIKELY SHIFT N DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N110W TO 20N140W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N131W SE TO 24N113W. 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF 13N W OF 117W.

GAPS WINDS...LATEST SSMI DATA INDICATES NE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT 
THESE NE SURGES TO 20 KT FOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.   
 
$$
NELSON