000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W N OF 4N HAS MOVED W 12 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS 
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. 
CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE ENHANCED ALONG THE WAVE AT 
10N...WITH OVERALL COVERAGE LESS THAN SCATTERED. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 2N HAS MOVED W AT 12 KT DURING 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N80W 11N101W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W 
AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 6N TO 12N W OF 130W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 5N TO 16N BETWEEN 84W AND 118W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N127W 
WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA 
ALONG THROUGH 32N126W TO A BASE AT 23N130W. A SECONDARY UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 32N140W. THIS CYCLONE 
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY 
SUNRISE MON TRAILING THE SECONDARY TROUGH TO NEAR 30N140W. THE 
INITIAL TROUGH SHOULD BE DIFFUSE BY THEN. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO AT 26N107W WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING SW THROUGH 19N120W TO A SHARP CREST AT 
17N139W. THUS THE UPPER FLOW IS W TO NW TO THE N OF 22N W OF 
130W AND SLY ELSEWHERE N OF THE RIDGE. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED 
OVER THE SUBTROPICS...N OF 23N. DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING 
ALONG THE ITCZ IS NOTED FROM 20N TO 3N W OF 123W AND FROM 23N TO 
3N E OF 123W. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL LIKELY SHIFT N DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N110W TO 20N140W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W SE TO 
24N115W. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF 13N W OF 
117W.

GAPS WINDS...LATEST SSMI DATA INDICATES NE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT 
THESE NE SURGES TO 20 KT FOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.   
 
$$
NELSON