000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051639 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT AUG 05 2006 CORRECTED DISCUSSION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W/113W N OF 4N IS MOVING W 15 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS DESCRIBED UNDER ITCZ. STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-13N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 2N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITH THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N79W 8N85W 11N100W 10N120W 10N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 79W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 129W-133.5W ...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W-121W AND ALSO W OF 137W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 128W-133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE ITCZ N TO 13N BETWEEN 89W-91W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 98W-101W. ...DISCUSSION... WEST OF 120W... N OF 20N QUASI-STATIONARY LARGE CYCLONIC VORTEX N OF AREA NEAR 34N127W HAS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N126W AND CONTINUES SSW TO 23N130W. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS W FROM THE VORTEX TO NEAR 33N140W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 22N136W NW TO 25N140W. W TO NW FLOW COVERS THE AREA W OF 130W WHILE SW FLOW IS NOTED E OF THE TROUGHS. MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED HERE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR. THE VORTEX IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITHIN ABOUUT 36-48 HRS WITH BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING N OF 28N. AS THIS HAPPENS... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM 25N120W WESTWARD TO 2N140W WITH LIGHT WINDS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W SOUTHEASTWARD E TO 25N125W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 23N. MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SW ARE SEEN HERE. S OF 20N MODERATE ESE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 9N-18N ...AND ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD. BROKEN TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 18N. EAST OF 120W... MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 24N112W. RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION SW TO 21N120W. THE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME DIFFUSE IN ABOUT 48 HRS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 25N120W. MODERATE TO SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 24N. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 21N-25N ON AND TRACK SW TO NEAR 19N120W IN 3-4 DAYS. STRONG MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL NE-E WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM 8N-20N. THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT AMPLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM MEXICO AND THE ITCZ REGION...AND WILL BECOME PREDOMINATLEY FROM THE E BY THE MIDDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE THIS AREA IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WITH ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION NOTED. $$ AGUIRRE