000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051607
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W/113W N OF 4N IS MOVING W 15 KT. 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS DESCRIBED UNDER ITCZ. 
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS DEEP 
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. ONLY 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
WAVE FROM 10N-13N.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 2N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE WAVE AXIS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITH THIS
WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N79W 8N85W 11N100W 10N120W 10N130W
10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 79W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 129W-133.5W
...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W-121W AND ALSO
W OF 137W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
128W-133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE ITCZ N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 89W-91W.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 98W-101W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEST OF 120W...

N OF 20N
QUASI-STATIONARY LARGE CYCLONIC VORTEX N OF AREA NEAR 34N127W HAS
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
THROUGH 32N126W AND CONTINUES SSW TO 23N130W. ANOTHER MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE AREA EXTENDS W FROM THE VORTEX TO NEAR 
33N140W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 22N136W NW TO
25N140W. W TO NW FLOW COVERS THE AREA W OF 130W WHILE SW FLOW
IS NOTED E OF THE TROUGHS. MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED
HERE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENED SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W SOUTHEASTWARD E TO 25N125W. HIGH 
PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 23N. MOSTLY BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SW
ARE SEEN HERE.

S OF 20N
MODERATE ESE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 9N-18N 
...AND ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION WESTWARD. BROKEN TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 18N.

EAST OF 120W...

MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST W OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 24N112W. RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 
CIRCULATION SW TO 21N120W. MODERATE TO SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED 
DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 24N. STRONG MID/UPPER UPPER 
LEVEL NE-E WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM 8N-20N. THESE WINDS 
CONTINUE TO ADVECT AMPLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM 
MEXICO AND THE ITCZ REGION. ELSEWHERE THIS AREA IS UNDER 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WITH ONLY ISOLATED 
WEAK CONVECTION NOTED.
  
$$
AGUIRRE