000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W N OF 3N IS MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF 
THE WAVE AXIS. ONE ACTIVE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AT 9N116W PROBABLY NOT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION E OF THE AXIS BUT NO ORGANIZATION. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N77W 10N94W 11N112W AND 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N77W TO 7N81W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE NEAR 11N98W AND 14N101W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
NEAR 9N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 128W TO 
139W.

...DISCUSSION...

A CLOSED OFF MID LEVEL LOW CENTER JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 
34N127W IS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO STRONG BLOCKING RIDGES. ONE W OF 
THE AREA ALONG 150W AND THE OTHER OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ON THE 
SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE HAS WEAKENED SOME SINCE LAST 
NIGHT. THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 20N114W. A WEAK REMNANT 
LOW..FORMER GILMA..WAS NEAR 19N113W MOVING NW. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST WERE NWLY 10 TO 15 KT.

LATER DAY 1 THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN 
STATIONARY NEAR 34N127W WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING ABOUT THE 
CENTER. THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL EXTEND SW ACROSS SRN 
BAJA INTO THE AREA NEAR 20N120W AND IS ACTING AS A BLOCK TO 
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW. ON THE SURFACE THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE REGION WITH NE TRADES OF 20 KT 
CONFINED TO 12N TO 20N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. SELY CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE S 
OF 5N W OF 100W WITH SLY SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT. 

FOR DAY 2 THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NE TO NEAR 
35N125W AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS SLIDES EWD. ON 
THE SURFACE A TROUGH WILL DROP SWD ALONG 127W ON THE N SIDE OF 
THE REGION. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST JUST A BIT INCREASING NW WINDS TO 20 KT. NE TRADES 
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO BETWEEN 15N AND 20N W OF 125W AT 20 KT. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF 5N W OF 100W. SOME 
INCREASE IN SLY CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS S OF 5N E OF 100W TO 20 
KT. SLY SWELL TO 9 FT WILL BE CONFINED TO S OF 5N BETWEEN 95W 
AND 103W. 

 
$$
RRG