000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES NEAR 18N112W 1009 MB...REMNANTS OF GILMA...ARE SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF REGENERATION AS INDICATED IN RECENT BURSTS OF 
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NW OF 
THE CENTER. THE LOW LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED ON 
THE E AND SE QUADRANT...BUT THE CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY COVER 
THE ENTIRE CENTER AS IT CONTINUES TO FLARE UP WITH TIME ALLOWING 
FOR THE LOW TO POSSIBLY REGAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24-36 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W N OF 3N IS MOVING W 15 KT. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS DESCRIBED UNDER ITCZ. STRONG 
EASTERLY SHEAR ALOFT CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMNT FROM 
OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W/86W N OF 3N S MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SEEN OVER HONDURAS. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N79W 11N100W 10N115W 10N120W 10130W 
10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 79W-82W AND 98W-102W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 105W-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 138W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N 
AND W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEST OF 120W...

N OF 20N
MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 
32N122W AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH 26N125W TO 22N131W. STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING SE INTO THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 
32N128W SW TO 27N136W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 
25N140W SE TO 24N133W. NW FLOW BEHIND BOTH TROUGHS IS USHERING
IN MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR. IN 
ADDITION...THE AREA OF RIDGING IS ALSO CREATING AN AREA
OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVER THE W HALF
OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W
SE TO 25N121W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA WITH BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED.

S OF 20N
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE 
PRESENT FROM 8N-19N ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM 
ITCZ CONVECTION WESTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE ITCZ.

EAST OF 120W...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N115W SW TO 20N120W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA NORTH
OF 18N. NEARLY STATIONARY SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS JUST SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 22N110W. 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES COVER THE AREA FROM 9N-20N. THESE 
WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT AMPLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM 
MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL BELT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF 
THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 
MONSOON TROUGH...AND CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THE ITCZ...THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WITH 
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED.
  
$$
AGUIRRE