000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040947
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W IS MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH NO ORGANIZATION. 
STRONG ELY SHEAR ALOFT PRECLUDES ANY DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR OR OVER THE LAND THEREFORE NO 
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.

...ITCZ...8N78W 12N105W 9N121W 11N136W 11N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 5N78W 8N95W 9N99W 10N102W 10N104W AND 
7N106W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 9N122W 8N129W 
9N137W AND 10N140W.

ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA NEAR 8N80W 8N85W 11N88W 13N89W AND 22N107W.

...DISCUSSION...

TWO LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGES ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE REGION. ONE 
ALONG 146W AND THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL US. IN BETWEEN A LARGE 
TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 135W REMAINS MOSTLY STATONARY..BUT 
SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SWD IN THE TROUGH. THE 
MID LEVEL EASTERLIES TONIGHT ARE CONFINED TO S OF 18N. ON THE 
SURFACE TONIGHT A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC HIGH WAS LOCATED NW OF 
THE REGION WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING SE OVER THE NW PORTION OF 
THE REGION FROM 32N136W TO 16N115W. GUSTY NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 
FROM 15N TO 30N W OF 127W CONTINUE. A SLOWLY WEAKENING LOW WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16N111W MOVING W 15 KT. THIS IS OLD GILMA. 

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TWO MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONS. 
THE LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 115W AND 137W 
N OF 20N. IT SHOULD BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF THE REGION 
LATER DAY 1. ON THE SURFACE THE NE TRADES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE 
SAME WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE. THE LOW PRES 
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP TO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES WWD. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SE WINDS TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL S OF 4N AND W OF 
100W. 

FOR DAY 2 THE WESTERN MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WWD TO 150W. 
THE CLOSED OFF MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO 34N126W AND 
DOMINATE THE REGION N OF 22N BETWEEN 116W AND 140W. THE MID 
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL DRIFT WWD TO THE SRN PLAINS 
DAY 2. MID LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL BE CONFINED TO S OF 20N. ON THE 
SURFACE THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DAY 2 AS A TROUGH 
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA ALONG 127W N OF 29N. NE TRADES WILL OF 20 
KT WILL BE CONFINED TO 15N TO 20N W OF 125W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE 
WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 5N W OF 105W WILL CONTINUE.   


$$
RRG