000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031616 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU AUG 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.1N 137.3W...OR ABOUT 1210 NM E OF HILO HAWAII AT 03/1500 UTC MOVING W AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH WITH ONLY ONE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE CENTER. LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS THIS FABIO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 109.5W...OR ABOUT 430 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 03/1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS ITS OVERALL CLOUD STRUCTURE LOOKS PROGRESSIVELY LESS IMPRESSIVE AS IT TRACKS WNW. ONLY ONE BURST OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM SW OF THE CENTER. GILMA IS FORECAST TO BE JUST A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 4N IS MOVING W 15 KT. NO ORGANIZATION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. ONLY ONE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...ABOUT 50 NM IN DIAMETER IS NEAR 5N101W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W/80W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 11N90W 15N105W 11N112W 10N120W 10130W 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 5N86W 7N86W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 7N88W. ...DISCUSSION... WEST OF 120W... MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N125W AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH 25N130W TO 24N134.5W. TO ITS WEST...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 25N140W TO THE JUST WEST OF THE TROUGH. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRIMARILY NORTH OF 21N THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD TO MERGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRODUCED BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A VERY PRONOUNCED LOW LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10-15 KT IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF AREA NEAR 9N141W. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE SEEN NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION TO ABOUT 20N AS WELL AS TO ITS NORTHEAST FROM 10N-18N. THESE SAME EASTERLY WINDS WERE CONTRIBUTED TO THE WEAKENING OF FABIO. EAST OF 120W... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N115W SOUTHWEST TO 20N120W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 18N. NEARLY STATIONARY SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 22N110W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES COVER THE AREA FROM 9N-20N. THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT AMPLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL BELT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE GUATEMALA COAST AND OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MONSOON TROUGH...AND CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ...THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED. $$ AGUIRRE