000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021615 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FABIO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 131.2W...OR 1500 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 02/1500 UTC MOVING W AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THIS SYSTEM AND INHIBITING IT FROM GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. AS A RESULT OF THE SHEAR...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED TO WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE CENTER AS A RESULT THE SHEAR. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 106.5W...OR 350 NM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 02/1500 UTC MOVING WNW 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GILMA BECAME EXPOSED OVERNIGHT DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THAT A NEW BURST OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS REFORMED WITHIN JUST OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND EXTENDS WESTWARD FOR 130 NM. GILMA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ...BUT IF THE CURRENT TREND OF DEEP CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER AND NEAR THE CENTER CONTINUES IT COULD AGAIN ACQUIRE TROPICAL STORM STATUS DURING THAT PERIOD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W/95W N OF 6N MOVING W 15 KT. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 91W-100W. ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-6N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 13.5N100W 13N108W 14N115W 12N126W 12N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 3N-7N EAST OF 85W...AND ALSO WIHTIN 30 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS WEST OF 138W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A SHEAR AXIS FROM 32N124W TO 24N131W. THE AXIS IS BOUNDED BY A MID/UPPER RIDGE TO ITS WEST ...EXTENDING FROM 24N140W TO 24N126W AND COLLOCATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED FAR TO THE SOUTH NEAR 2N135W AND STRONG EASTERLIES CONTINUE BETWEEN IT AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FARTHER E...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO SOUTHWEST TO 17N122W AND IS ALSO BOUNDED TO ITS SOUTH WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING AMPLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL BELT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ...THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021615 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FABIO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 131.2W...OR 1500 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 02/1500 UTC MOVING W AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THIS SYSTEM AND INHIBITING IT FROM GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. AS A RESULT OF THE SHEAR...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED TO WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE CENTER AS A RESULT THE SHEAR. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 106.5W...OR 350 NM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 02/1500 UTC MOVING WNW 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GILMA BECAME EXPOSED OVERNIGHT DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THAT A NEW BURST OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS REFORMED WITHIN JUST OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND EXTENDS WESTWARD FOR 130 NM. GILMA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ...BUT IF THE CURRENT TREND OF DEEP CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER AND NEAR THE CENTER CONTINUES IT COULD AGAIN ACQUIRE TROPICAL STORM STATUS DURING THAT PERIOD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W/95W N OF 6N MOVING W 15 KT. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 91W-100W. ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-6N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 13.5N100W 13N108W 14N115W 12N126W 12N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 3N-7N EAST OF 85W...AND ALSO WIHTIN 30 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS WEST OF 138W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A SHEAR AXIS FROM 32N124W TO 24N131W. THE AXIS IS BOUNDED BY A MID/UPPER RIDGE TO ITS WEST ...EXTENDING FROM 24N140W TO 24N126W AND COLLOCATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED FAR TO THE SOUTH NEAR 2N135W AND STRONG EASTERLIES CONTINUE BETWEEN IT AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FARTHER E...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO SOUTHWEST TO 17N122W AND IS ALSO BOUNDED TO ITS SOUTH WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING AMPLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL BELT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ...THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED. $$ AGUIRRE