000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020939 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FABIO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 129.5W...OR 1210 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 02/0900 UTC MOVING W 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SSM/I AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FABIO IS LOCATED ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THIS STRUCTURE IS BEING CAUSED BY STRONG ELY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. FABIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS COOLER SSTS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...SO WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 106.0W...OR 285 NM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 02/0900 UTC MOVING NW 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GILMA BECAME EXPOSED FROM ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN 0000 AND 0200 UTC...AND SINCE THEN ONLY ONE TSTM CELL IS LOCATED ABOUT 120 NM NW OF THE CENTER. GILMA HAS FALLEN VICTIM TO STRONG ELY SHEAR...AND IT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER SINCE THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 6N MOVING W 15 KT. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED S OF THE CNTRL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND SE MEXICO BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE IS PREVENTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 14N106W 13N113W 15N128W 11N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION N OF 4N E OF 83W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRAILS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A SHEAR AXIS FROM 30N118W TO 21N130W. THE AXIS IS BOUNDED BY A MID/UPPER RIDGE TO ITS W...LYING ALONG 22N140W 25N127W AND COLLOCATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DRY SUBSIDENT AIR. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED FAR TO THE S NEAR 4N134W AND STRONG EASTERLIES ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN IT AND THE RIDGE TO THE N. CLOUD-DERIVED WIND VECTORS SHOW 35-50 KT EASTERLIES NOT TOO FAR FROM T.S. FABIO AND ARE LIMITING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. FARTHER E...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO SW TO 14N122W AND IS ALSO BOUNDED TO ITS S WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES. THESE WINDS ARE EVEN MORE HOSTILE AND ARE ALSO ADVECTING MUCH DRIER AIR WWD FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN S AMERICA. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN TOO STRONG FOR T.D. GILMA...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE EASTERN PART OF THE E PACIFIC OCEAN IS RELATIVELY VOID OF TSTM ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL ACTIVITY BLOOMING OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. A TONGUE OF LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (LESS THAN 1.50-1.75") HAS PROTRUDED NWD ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO 12N W OF 96W AND APPEARS TO HAVE SHUT OFF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. $$ BERG