000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011513
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FABIO NEAR 15.0N 125.7W 1000 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 
01 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BANDING OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
CENTER MAINLY IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL 
ESTABLISHED AND OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE 
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  

TROPICAL STORM GILMA UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8-E NEAR 
13.8N 105.5W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 01 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 
8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. VISUAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ON 
THE E SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. GILMA REMAINS IN A MODERATELY 
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 
NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN 
AREA OF RELAXED SHEAR AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 6N IS MOVING W 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 5N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AT NORTHERN END OF THE 
WAVE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 97W AND 105W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N78W 9N88W 12N98W 12N110W 9N128W 
10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.


...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF 
15N WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 25N133W AND ANOTHER CENTER 
OVER EXTREME NRN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IS INDICATED 
BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES WITH AXIS N OF 25N ALONG 125W. 
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS E OF 110W 
AND IS PROVIDING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER TROPICAL STORM GILMA. THIS 
EASTERLY FLOW RELAXES SOMEWHAT W OF 110W AND AS SUCH TROPICAL 
STORM FABIO IS SITUATED IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N W OF 120W. 
    
$$
MUNDELL