000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FABIO NEAR 14.8N 124.6W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 
01 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED 
BANDING OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
CENTER MAINLY IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL 
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.  

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT E NEAR 13.6N 104.6W 1009 MB AT 0900 
UTC AUG 01 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. EIGHT-E REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION CONFINED TO WITHIN 150 NM OF THE W 
SEMICIRCLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED AND LOCATED AT THE 
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO 
AN AREA OF RELAXED SHEAR AND AS SUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS 
EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EIGHT-E TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 5N IS MOVING W 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 4N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS AT THE NORTHERN END 
OF THE WAVE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 95W AND 
104W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...9N84W 13N100W 13N108W 12N118W 
9N130W 10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.


...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF 
15N WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 25N133W AND ANOTHER CENTER 
OVER EXTREME NRN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IS INDICATED 
BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES WITH AXIS N OF 25N ALONG 125W. 
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS E OF 110W 
AND IS PROVIDING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
EIGHT-E. THIS EASTERLY FLOW RELAXES SOMEWHAT W OF 110W AND AS 
SUCH TROPICAL STORM FABIO IS SITUATED IN A MORE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 
10N W OF 120W. 
    
$$
COBB