000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010300 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUL 31 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ....TROPICAL STORM WARNING... .TROPICAL STORM FABIO NEAR 14.5N 123.3W 1005 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 01 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEE NHC ADVISORIES FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 5N IS MOVING W 10 KT. THE ONLY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 4N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11N AND 14N...DECREASING WITH TIME. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 3N TO 17N IS MOVING W 12 KT. A LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N103W MOVING W 10 KT. THE LOW IS SEPARATING FROM THE WAVE AS THE WAVE MOVES FASTER WESTWARD. AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. .ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 9N110W 7N120W 6N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF 15N. A LRGE AREA OF SUBSIDING DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGE. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF 15N. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N. EXCEPT FOR THE TWO EMBEDDED LOWS THE AREA SOUTH OF 16N IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. $$ FERNANDO TORRES 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010300 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ....TROPICAL STORM WARNING... .TROPICAL STORM FABIO NEAR 14.5N 123.3W 1005 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 01 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEE NHC ADVISORIES FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 5N IS MOVING W 10 KT. THE ONLY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 4N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11N AND 14N...DECREASING WITH TIME. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 3N TO 17N IS MOVING W 12 KT. A LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N103W MOVING W 10 KT. THE LOW IS SEPARATING FROM THE WAVE AS THE WAVE MOVES FASTER WESTWARD. AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. .ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 9N110W 7N120W 6N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF 15N. A LRGE AREA OF SUBSIDING DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGE. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF 15N. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N. EXCEPT FOR THE TWO EMBEDDED LOWS THE AREA SOUTH OF 16N IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. $$ FERNANDO TORRES