000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311529
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 7N TO 20N IS MOVING W 12 KT WITH A 
1009 MB LOW NEAR 15N120W. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS WELL 
DEFINED. THE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
POINT 14.6N120.4W.  UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 4N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. 
EASTERLIES ALOFT WILL INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.   NO 
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS SEEN WITH THIS WAVE.  CONVECTION NEAR 
THE COAST IS DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 3N TO 17N IS MOVING W 12 KT. A LOW 
IS LOCATED NEAR 12N102.5W MOVING W 10 KT.  THE LOW IS SEPARATING 
FROM THE WAVE AS THE WAVE MOVES FASTER WESTWARD.  AN AREA OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED NEAR THE 
CENTER AND IS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE POINT 11.8N104.7W.  AN AREA OF WEAKEN CONVECTION HAS 
MOVED WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS TRACKING WEST 
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

.ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 9N110W 7N120W 6N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA 
NORTH OF 15N.  AN EMBEDDED TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND 
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.  THIS TROUGH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION 
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AREA.  
OVER THE OCEAN LITTLE WEATHER OR CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
RIDGE.

A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF 15N.  

AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 16N.  EXCEPT FOR THE TWO 
EMBEDDED LOWS THE AREA SOUTH OF 16N IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD 
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE.

$$
LL