000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310845
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W FROM 7N TO 20N IS MOVING W 12 KT WITH A 
1008 MB LOW NEAR 15N119W. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS WELL 
DEFINED...HOWEVER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONVECTION HAS 
BEEN AT A MINIMUM AND CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITHIN
45-60 NM OF 13.5N 119.5W. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 4N IS MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. 
EASTERLIES ALOFT WILL INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE CENTRAL 
AMERICAN AND MEXICO COASTLINES BETWEEN 86W AND 101W. THIS 
ACTIVITY IS NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W FROM 3N TO 17N IS MOVING W 10 KT WITH A 
1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN A BAND WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE W 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER 
LEVELS IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...12N87W 10N105W 15N119W 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 111W AND 113W...AND FROM 12N TO 14.5N W OF 136W.  

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW 
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 26N133W. THE CIRCULATION IS 
NEARLY STATIONARY. FURTHER EAST A MIDDLE/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 32N125W SWD TO 21N130W WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 26N126W. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC EAST OF THE TROUGH 
INTO MEXICO N OF 18N WITH A WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
30N112W. THE FLOW IS PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY ALOFT OVER THE DEEP 
TROPICS EAST OF 110W AND IS INHIBITING ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT 
IN THE AREA.  

$$
COBB