000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302122
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 4N MOVING W 15-20 KT. UPPER LEVEL 
EASTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM ARE PRODUCING STRONG SHEAR.  
CONVECTION WHICH WAS JUST WEST OF THE WAVE HAS MOVED FURTHER 
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE WAVE AXIS.  WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF 13.3N94.8W. 
CIRCULATION IS NOT EVIDENT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A 1010 MB 
LOW NEAR 11N101W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 11.2N102.4W.  ALSO SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE 14.8N100.3W TO 11.8N105.3W.  THIS CONVECTION IS MOVING 
AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W FROM 6N TO 19N MOVING W 12 KT WITH A 
1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N116W. THIS LOW/WAVE ALSO HAS A WELL-DEFINED 
CIRCULATION BUT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES IS KEEPING THE DEEP 
CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE POINT 
15N117.5W.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...4N77W 10N105W 7N120W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS FROM 111W TO 118W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N IS THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE 
EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO NEAR 18N140W.  
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE IS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 
OVER NEW MEXICO.  THIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO.  

A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS 
SOUTH TO THE ITCZ.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WEST.

SOUTH OF 15N A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA IN THE DEEP LAYER.

DRY AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS NORTH OF 20N 
WEST OF 120W.

AT THE SURFACE A VERY WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N.  SOUTH OF 20N 
IS A BROAD TROUGH WITH THE TWO EMBEDDED LOW CENTERED MENTION IN 
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

$$
LL