000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 5N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS 
EXTRAPOLATED WWD BASED ON ITS MORE PRONOUNCED SIGNATURE OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN.  30-40 KT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM 
ARE PRODUCING STRONG SHEAR WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION N OF 4N W OF THE WAVE TO 94W. CIRCULATION IS NOT 
EVIDENT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A 1010 MB 
LOW NEAR 11N100W. THIS WAVE HAS A MORE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION 
COMPARED WITH THE ONE TO ITS E...BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND MAINLY NEAR THE LOW CENTER.  EASTERLY 
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS OBSERVED.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 12.5N101.4W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W FROM 6N TO 18N MOVING W 12 KT WITH A 
1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N115W. THIS LOW/WAVE ALSO HAS A WELL-DEFINED 
CIRCULATION BUT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES IS KEEPING THE DEEP 
CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 14.5N116W.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 9N105W 7N120W 8N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE POINT 12.8N92.2W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 9.6N93.2W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N IS THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE 
EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 15N140W.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS 
RIDGE IS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO.  THIS 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO.  

A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS 
SOUTH TO THE ITCZ.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WEST.

SOUTH OF 15N A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA IN THE DEEP LAYER.

DRY AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS NORTH OF 20N 
WEST OF 120W.

AT THE SURFACE A VERY WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N.  SOUTH OF 20N 
IS A BROAD TROUGH WITH THE TWO EMBEDDED LOW CENTERED MENTION IN 
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

$$
LL