000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301009 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUL 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 4N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EXTRAPOLATED WWD BASED ON ITS MORE PRONOUNCED SIGNATURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. 30-40 KT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM ARE PRODUCING STRONG SHEAR WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION N OF 4N BETWEEN 89W-95W. SOME OF THESE TSTMS ARE MOVING OFF THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N99W. THIS WAVE HAS A MORE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION COMPARED WITH THE ONE TO ITS E...BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO THE INCREASING ELY SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 100W-103W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114.5W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 13.5N114.5W. THIS LOW/WAVE ALSO HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BUT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES IS KEEPING THE DEEP CONVECTION NW OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS SUGGEST THAT A SECOND CENTER MAY BE LOCATED FARTHER NW INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION...OR A NEW CENTER MAY BE FORMING UNDER THE TSTMS. A SUSTAINED BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 14N116W. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N80W 12N90W 11N105W 14N125W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM FROM 10N87W TO 15N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 12.7N139.2W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A 50 KT SWLY JET JUST GRAZING BY 30N140W. THE JET LIES ADJACENT TO AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N133W WITH A DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS LYING N OF 20N AND W OF 120W. A MID/UPPER LOW IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN THIS DRY AIR NEAR 28N125W AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SHEARED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REMNANT LOW OF EMILIA IS LOCATED NEAR 29N125W SURROUNDED BY STABLE STRATOCUMULUS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN 24-48 HRS. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN U.S. IS PRODUCING ELY UPPER FLOW OVER NW MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA AND IS BLOWING TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF NW MEXICO TOWARDS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. TROPICS... MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL FEATURES ARE NOTED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL WAVES. THE UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY ELY OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND THUS HAS MADE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...THE ELY FLOW INCREASES E OF 110W THROUGH TUE THEN EXPANDS W WED AND THU AND MAKES THE ENVIRONMENT EVEN MORE HOSTILE. $$ MUNDELL