000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 4N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS 
EXTRAPOLATED WWD BASED ON ITS MORE PRONOUNCED SIGNATURE OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN. 30-40 KT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM 
ARE PRODUCING STRONG SHEAR WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION N OF 4N BETWEEN 83W-91W. SOME OF THESE TSTMS ARE 
MOVING OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS OVER THE GULF OF 
FONSECA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1010 MB 
LOW NEAR 11N98W. THIS WAVE HAS A MORE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION 
COMPARED WITH THE ONE TO ITS E...BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO THE INCREASING ELY SHEAR. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 98W-103W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1008 
MB LOW NEAR 13N114W. THIS LOW/WAVE ALSO HAS A WELL-DEFINED 
CIRCULATION BUT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES IS KEEPING THE DEEP 
CONVECTION NW OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS 
SUGGEST THAT A SECOND CENTER MAY BE LOCATED FARTHER NW...OR A 
NEW CENTER MAY BE REFORMING. A BURST OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY 
DEVELOPED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 
112W-118W.

TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS ALONG 140W HAS MOVED W OF THE AREA.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 11N97W 12N113W 15N126W 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 5N BETWEEN 83W-90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 98W-104W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICS...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A 
50 KT SWLY JET JUST GRAZING BY 30N140W. THE JET LIES ADJACENT TO 
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N133W WITH A DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL 
AIR MASS LYING N OF 20N AND W OF 120W. A MID/UPPER LOW IS ALSO 
EMBEDDED IN THIS DRY AIR NEAR 28N125W AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME 
SHEARED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF 
EMILIA IS LOCATED NEAR 29N125W SURROUNDED BY STABLE 
STRATOCUMULUS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A RECOGNIZABLE SYSTEM BY 
48 HRS. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN U.S. IS 
PRODUCING ELY UPPER FLOW OVER NW MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA 
AND IS BLOWING TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF NW MEXICO 
TOWARDS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

TROPICS...
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL FEATURES ARE NOTED ABOVE IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL WAVES. THE UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY ELY 
OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND THUS HAS MADE THE ENVIRONMENT 
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...THE ELY 
FLOW INCREASES E OF 110W THROUGH TUE THEN EXPANDS W WED AND THU 
AND MAKES THE ENVIRONMENT EVEN MORE HOSTILE.

$$
BERG