000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292133 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 4N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EXTRAPOLATED WWD BASED ON ITS MORE PRONOUNCED SIGNATURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. 30-40 KT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM ARE PRODUCING STRONG SHEAR WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 86W-92W. A FEW STRONGER TSTMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE WAVE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N98W. THIS WAVE HAS A MORE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION COMPARED WITH THE ONE TO ITS E...BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS CELLULAR AND DISORGANIZED DUE TO THE INCREASING ELY SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 96W-102W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS LOW/WAVE ALSO HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BUT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES AND A RELATIVELY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ARE KEEPING THE DEEP CONVECTION N/NW OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS LOW LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 112W-117W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 140W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE ITCZ WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED NEAR 11N138W. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE NEAR THE WAVE...AS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 11N97W 12N113W 15N126W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 96W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W-132W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A 50 KT SWLY JET JUST GRAZING BY 30N140W. THE JET LIES ADJACENT TO AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N133W WITH A DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS LYING N OF 20N AND W OF 120W. A MID/UPPER LOW IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN THIS DRY AIR NEAR 26N125W AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SHEARED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF EMILIA IS LOCATED NEAR 28N124W SURROUNDED BY STABLE STRATOCUMULUS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A RECOGNIZABLE SYSTEM BY 48 HRS. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN U.S. IS PRODUCING ELY UPPER FLOW OVER NW MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA AND IS BLOWING CIRRUS OVER THE AREA FROM TSTMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TROPICS... MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL FEATURES ARE NOTED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL WAVES. THE UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY ELY OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND THUS HAS MADE THE ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...THE ELY FLOW INCREASES E OF 110W THROUGH TUE THEN EXPANDS W WED AND THU AND MAKES THE ENVIRONMENT EVEN MORE HOSTILE. $$ BERG